{"id":16205,"date":"2023-05-31T10:28:13","date_gmt":"2023-05-31T14:28:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/can-harley-davidson-stock-rise-over-50-to-pre-inflation-shock-levels\/"},"modified":"2023-05-31T10:28:14","modified_gmt":"2023-05-31T14:28:14","slug":"can-harley-davidson-stock-rise-over-50-to-pre-inflation-shock-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205","title":{"rendered":"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Harley-Davidson stock currently trades at $33 per share, around 36% below its level of $52 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and seems like a good investment opportunity. Harley saw its stock trading at around $30.30 at the end of June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and remains up by about 9% from those levels. In comparison, the S&amp;P 500 gained about 11% during this period. Harley stock has benefited from better than expected Q1 results, rising motorcycle shipments (up 14% in Q1), and easing supply chain issues.<\/p>\n<p>Returning to the pre-inflation shock level means that Harley stock will have to gain about 58% from here. While it\u2019s likely that the stock may recover to those levels, we estimate <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HOG\/no-login-required\/CdupZXaD\/Harley-Davidson-HOG-Valuation-Is-HOG-Stock-Expensive-Or-Cheap-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230531\">Harley Davidson valuation<\/strong> to be around $50 per share, about 52% above the market price. This is because the recent uncertainty in the financial sector has made investors concerned about a potential recession. Harley\u2019s business may see an adverse impact on its volume if the U.S. economy were to go into recession, with customers holding back on discretionary purchases.<\/p>\n<p>Our detailed analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/HOG\/no-login-required\/key3noQq\/Harley-Davidson-During-2008-Recession-vs-2022-Inflation-Shock-HOG-Stock-Has-58-Upside-If-It-Recovers-To-Pre-Inflation-Shock-Levels-?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230531\">Harley-Davidson upside post-inflation shock<\/strong> captures trends in the company\u2019s stock during the turbulent market conditions seen over 2022 and compares these trends to the stock\u2019s performance during the 2008 recession.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2022 Inflation Shock<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Timeline of Inflation Shock So Far:<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2020 &#8211; early 2021: Increase in money supply to cushion the impact of lockdowns led to high demand for goods; producers were unable to match up.<\/li>\n<li>Early 2021: Shipping snarls and worker shortages from the coronavirus pandemic continue to hurt the supply<\/li>\n<li>April 2021: Inflation rates cross 4% and increase rapidly<\/li>\n<li>Early 2022: Energy and food prices spike due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Fed begins its rate hike process<\/li>\n<li>June 2022: Inflation levels peak at 9% &#8211; the highest level in 40 years. S&amp;P 500 index declines more than 20% from peak levels.<\/li>\n<li>July &#8211; September 2022: Fed hikes interest rates aggressively &#8211; resulting in an initial recovery in the S&amp;P 500 followed by another sharp decline<\/li>\n<li>Since October 2022: Fed continues rate hike process; improving market sentiments help S&amp;P500 recoup some of its losses<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In contrast, here\u2019s how HOG stock and the broader market performed during the 2007\/2008 crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Timeline of 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>10\/1\/2007: Approximate pre-crisis peak in S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>9\/1\/2008 &#8211; 10\/1\/2008: Accelerated market decline corresponding to Lehman bankruptcy filing (9\/15\/08)<\/li>\n<li>3\/1\/2009: Approximate bottoming out of S&amp;P 500 index<\/li>\n<li>12\/31\/2009: Initial recovery to levels before accelerated decline (around 9\/1\/2008)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>HOG and S&amp;P 500 Performance During 2007-08 Crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>HOG stock declined from nearly $46 in October 2007 (pre-crisis peak) to $10 in March 2009 (as the markets bottomed out), implying that HOG stock lost almost 78% of its pre-crisis value. It recovered post the 2008 crisis to levels of around $25 in early 2010, rising roughly 150% between March 2009 and January 2010. The S&amp;P 500 Index saw a decline of 51%, falling from levels of 1,540 in September 2007 to 757 in March 2009. It then rallied 48% between March 2009 and January 2010 to reach levels of 1,124.<\/p>\n<p><strong>HOG Fundamentals Over Recent Years<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>HOG revenues declined from around $5.7 billion in 2018 to about $4 billion in 2020, due to the impact of Covid-19 on motorcycle sales. However, sales rose to $5.3 billion in 2021 and to about $5.7 billion in 2022 as demand picked up and also as supply chain issues gradually eased. Net income declined from around $531 million in 2018 to just about $1 million in 2020, although it rose to about $741 million in 2022.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>With the Fed\u2019s efforts to tame runaway inflation rates helping market sentiment, we believe Harley-Davidson<fbs-ticker data-name=\"HOG\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/harley-davidson\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  HOG<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> stock has the potential for strong gains once fears of a potential recession are allayed. What if you\u2019re looking for a high-performance portfolio with a low downside instead? Here\u2019s a <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/BPo8U0Xc\/Reinforced-Value-Portfolio-with-439-Return-Since-2016-vs-87-for-S-P-500?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230531\">reinforced value portfolio<\/strong> that has beaten the market consistently while limiting losses during periods of sharp market declines.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/05\/31\/can-harley-davidson-stock-rise-over-50-to-pre-inflation-shock-levels\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Harley-Davidson stock currently trades at $33 per share, around 36% below its level of $52 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and seems like a good investment opportunity. Harley saw its stock trading at around $30.30 at the end of June 2022, just before the Fed started increasing rates, and remains up by [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16206,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-16205","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Harley-Davidson stock currently trades at $33 per share, around 36% below its level of $52 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and seems like\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels? | iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Harley-Davidson stock currently trades at $33 per share, around 36% below its level of $52 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and seems like\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"iFintechWorld\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-05-31T14:28:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-05-31T14:28:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/1685543294_0x0.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"News Room\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"News Room\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\"},\"headline\":\"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels?\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-31T14:28:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-05-31T14:28:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205\"},\"wordCount\":639,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Featured\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Markets\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205\",\"name\":\"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels? | iFintechWorld\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2023-05-31T14:28:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-05-31T14:28:14+00:00\",\"description\":\"Harley-Davidson stock currently trades at $33 per share, around 36% below its level of $52 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and seems like\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"description\":\"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Repay Down\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png\",\"width\":558,\"height\":90,\"caption\":\"Repay Down\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"}},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61\",\"name\":\"News Room\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png\",\"caption\":\"News Room\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels? | iFintechWorld","description":"Harley-Davidson stock currently trades at $33 per share, around 36% below its level of $52 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and seems like","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels? | iFintechWorld","og_description":"Harley-Davidson stock currently trades at $33 per share, around 36% below its level of $52 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and seems like","og_url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205","og_site_name":"iFintechWorld","article_published_time":"2023-05-31T14:28:13+00:00","article_modified_time":"2023-05-31T14:28:14+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1200,"height":800,"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/1685543294_0x0.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"News Room","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"News Room","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205"},"author":{"name":"News Room","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61"},"headline":"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels?","datePublished":"2023-05-31T14:28:13+00:00","dateModified":"2023-05-31T14:28:14+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205"},"wordCount":639,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["Featured"],"articleSection":["Markets"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205","name":"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels? | iFintechWorld","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2023-05-31T14:28:13+00:00","dateModified":"2023-05-31T14:28:14+00:00","description":"Harley-Davidson stock currently trades at $33 per share, around 36% below its level of $52 seen on May 17, 2021 (pre-inflation shock high), and seems like","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=16205#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Can Harley-Davidson Stock Rise Over 50% To Pre-Inflation Shock Levels?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","name":"Repay Down","description":"Latest Personal Finance News, Tips and Updates","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#organization","name":"Repay Down","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/rep-logo-dark.png","width":558,"height":90,"caption":"Repay Down"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/6224724fd4116361255b179dc5c70b61","name":"News Room","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/avatar_user_1_1682606986-96x96.png","caption":"News Room"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/ifintechworld.com"],"url":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?author=1"}]}},"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16205","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16205"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16205\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16207,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16205\/revisions\/16207"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16205"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16205"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16205"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}