{"id":15862,"date":"2023-05-30T17:52:31","date_gmt":"2023-05-30T21:52:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/the-rise-of-right-wing-populism-could-obliterate-kirchnerism-while-threatening-the-expected-victory-of-the-opposition\/"},"modified":"2023-05-30T17:52:32","modified_gmt":"2023-05-30T21:52:32","slug":"the-rise-of-right-wing-populism-could-obliterate-kirchnerism-while-threatening-the-expected-victory-of-the-opposition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=15862","title":{"rendered":"The Rise Of Right-Wing Populism Could Obliterate Kirchnerism While Threatening The Expected Victory Of The Opposition"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Logic would suggest that her luck would have to run out at some point, but Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner has surprised us time and time again, retaining her central position in Argentina\u2019s political ecosystem. She\u2019s the brightest star in a galaxy that is quickly fading, as society becomes increasingly annoyed by the political goings-on, which makes her endurance all the more commendable from an objective point of view. Argentina, of course, isn\u2019t a quasi-democracy where autocrats can barricade themselves in the presidential palace, relying on intelligence agencies and security forces to keep adversaries at bay. The general rules of play agreed upon in 1983, with the return of democracy, have pretty much been respected, and both Peronists and anti-Peronists have essentially stayed within their bounds. It is in that context that Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner is looking to once again pick out a surprise strategy from her political playbook, only that this time it is probably at her moment of greatest weakness. Her internal struggle is difficult to imagine as she battles to keep the pan-Peronist Frente de Todos front from a humiliating third place in this year\u2019s presidential election, failing to make the run-off and consolidating a cycle of political decline originating probably around her second presidency. With Juntos por el Cambio chastising themselves as Horacio Rodr\u00edguez Larreta and Patricia Bullrich duke it out in public, it appears that Javier Milei is the only one left with nothing to lose.<\/p>\n<p>A na\u00efve reader of Cristina\u2019s previous letter, one of her preferred methods to communicate her musings to followers and fans, could believe that she is writing in exile, forced to leave or pay with her life like many in Argentina\u2019s violent past. Attempting to draw a parallel between the \u201cproscription\u201d of Peronism in the mid-20th century during a time when political violence meant guerrilla warfare in the streets of the nation\u2019s cities, state-sponsored terrorism against the population and a vast array of human rights violations, the vice-president confirms she\u2019s renounced any potential candidacy this year, given it will be blocked by the bloodthirsty \u201cJudicial Party.\u201d It\u2019s not just judicial persecution, but an all-out cultural war against Peronism and Kirchnerism also waged by the ferocious mainstream media, culminating in an attempted assassination she has somehow linked to her political opponents. The other narrative thread carrying Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner\u2019s political pitch is the immoral nature of the International Monetary Fund\u2019s bail-out of the Mauricio Macri administration, which is part of an international plot to put Argentina on its knees so that foreign financial interests can plunder our riches.<\/p>\n<p>\n <span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><fbs-ad position=\"topx\" batched=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-topx-1\" data-double-progressive=\"\"><\/fbs-ad>\n<\/p>\n<p>She\u2019s quite convincing. In some sort of way she is in exile, forced to live a life of limited exposure to everyday pleasures, like eating at a restaurant or going to the cinema, given the level of rejection she generates in a large portion of society. In those regards both husband N\u00e9stor and arch-nemesis Mauricio have been more successful than CFK \u2013 both were able to walk the streets relatively freely, something Macri still does. As mentioned previously in this column, Cristina\u2019s political renunciation was nothing more than the acknowledgement that winning a presidential election was statistically impossible and would cause more harm than good for her political cause. The same could be said of Macri, but CFK has folded it into the Kirchnerite political narrative requiring an epic battle against an all-powerful army which has rigged the odds against her.<\/p>\n<p>This latest renunciation, which is at least the third time she\u2019s confirmed it, comes as \u201cthe Movement\u201d continues to beg her to run, as we saw in last week&#8217;s rally. And here is where one must tactically observe what the vice-president is doing, because a run for the Senate in the Province of Buenos Aires would almost guarantee her a seat while giving a boost to Governor Axel Kicillof, the \u201cprodigal child,\u201d in his contested bid for re-election. There appears to be no obvious reasons as to why the Judiciary would block her candidacy on similar grounds as they\u2019ve done in San Juan and Tucum\u00e1n, while the many corruption cases against her \u2014 at least one with an initial conviction \u2014 are far from final sentences which would truly rule her out. Retaining the governorship of Buenos Aires Province while trying to come in second in the national election must be what is guiding CFK\u2019s decision-making process.<\/p>\n<p>According to esteemed sociologist and political analyst Eduardo Fidanza there is a substantial probability that the Frente de Todos won\u2019t make it to the run-off this year, a turn of events which would be unprecedented. Speaking at a livestream for <em>Perfil<\/em>\u2019s digital subscribers last week, the founder of political consultancy firm Poliarqu\u00eda noted that the rise of ultraliberal economist Milei could relegate the Peronists if the lead in polls materializes into votes, something impossible to concretely predict at this juncture given the nascent nature of the phenomenon. The firebrand economist counts on the benefit of speaking to an irritated and disillusioned society tired of the \u201ccaste,\u201d as Javier Milei has dubbed the political class. It doesn\u2019t really matter at this point that his political platform includes the privatization of health and education, unfettered organ-buying and the legal carrying of firearms, or even that his running-mate is a dictatorship denialist. Or that, as many suggest, he\u2019s being financed by all sorts of different actors, from Peronist leaders to leading businessmen, all looking to capitalize on the effects of his shining star.<\/p>\n<p>\n <span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><fbs-ad position=\"topx\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-topx-2\" data-double-progressive=\"\"><\/fbs-ad>\n<\/p>\n<p>Coming to Milei\u2019s aid unwittingly is Juntos por el Cambio. The opposition coalition is fragmented as hawks (Bullrich) and doves (Rodr\u00edguez Larreta) engage in a damaging primary that, according to Fidanza, has shaved several percentage points off their voting intentions, which are expected to go mainly to Milei. While CFK is doing everything in her power to try and remain competitive, Juntos\u2019 supporters should be worried that they appear to be doing everything to sabotage their own chances, even if the projections suggest they will take the electoral bout. In their favor is the coalition structure which allows JxC to pick up votes outside the Bullrich-Larreta tandem, in part due to the affiliation of the Uni\u00f3n Civic Radical and its offshoots. At the same time, their strategic allegiance with Jos\u00e9 Luis Espert, a former ally of Milei, could help them retain some hardliner votes, even if it also affects Bullrich.<\/p>\n<p>Argentina\u2019s political class is lost in a difficult maze. At one end is Milei, who seems to have jumped out of the maze to play under his own rules, which are the rules of right-wing populism that are so effective. Frente de Todos is trying to figure out how to minimize the damage of an almost guaranteed defeat, while Juntos por el Cambio is acting as if they\u2019d already won the election. All of this promises to further dampen the social mood.<\/p>\n<p><em>This <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/news\/opinion-and-analysis\/politics-in-a-labyrinth.phtml\">piece <\/em><em>was originally published in the <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/\">Buenos Aires Times<\/em><em>, Argentina&#8217;s only English-language newspaper.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\n <span>ADVERTISEMENT<\/span><fbs-ad position=\"topx\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-topx-3\" data-double-progressive=\"\"><\/fbs-ad>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/afontevecchia\/2023\/05\/30\/the-rise-of-right-wing-populism-could-obliterate-kirchnerism-while-threatening-the-expected-victory-of-the-opposition\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Logic would suggest that her luck would have to run out at some point, but Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner has surprised us time and time again, retaining her central position in Argentina\u2019s political ecosystem. She\u2019s the brightest star in a galaxy that is quickly fading, as society becomes increasingly annoyed by the political goings-on, which [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15863,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-15862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Rise Of Right-Wing Populism Could Obliterate Kirchnerism While Threatening The Expected Victory Of The Opposition | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Logic would suggest that her luck would have to run out at some point, but Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner has surprised us time and time again, retaining\" \/>\n<meta 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