{"id":14696,"date":"2023-05-27T15:02:42","date_gmt":"2023-05-27T19:02:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/after-bed-bath-beyond-will-another-retailer-fall-2-winners-and-losers\/"},"modified":"2023-05-27T15:02:43","modified_gmt":"2023-05-27T19:02:43","slug":"after-bed-bath-beyond-will-another-retailer-fall-2-winners-and-losers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=14696","title":{"rendered":"After Bed Bath &#038; Beyond, Will Another Retailer Fall? 2 Winners And Losers"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>In April, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY) filed for bankruptcy after a botched merchandising makeover. More retail bankruptcies could be ahead, noted the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/05\/18\/business\/dealbook\/corporate-bankruptcies-high-debt.html\">New York Times<\/em><fbs-ticker data-name=\"NYT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/new-york-times\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  NYT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>.<\/p>\n<p>Given the low unemployment rate and continued growth in consumer spending, investors must distinguish the retail winners from the losers.<\/p>\n<p>After reporting first quarter results, two things separate the rising retailers from the falling ones:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Trend of consumer demand. <\/strong>Retailers focus on various groups of consumers. Wealthy people who pay to display it are still buying and less wealthy consumers are cutting back and delaying purchases.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Relative competitive positioning. <\/strong>The retailers whose competitive positioning best matches the needs of their consumers \u2014 for example, the ability to supply unique merchandise while maintaining tight control of costs to serve price-sensitive consumers \u2014 will prevail while those with weak strategies are at risk.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Read on for an analysis of two winners and losers; what is behind their strategies, and how investors can profit from this analysis. I\u2019ve included a list of retailers considered to have an elevated risk of bankruptcy for those willing to bet on their declining stock price.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Retail Bankruptcies Ahead<\/h2>\n<p>Bankruptcies are at the highest level since 2010 \u2014 and BBBY is the most prominent of the retailers suffering this fate. According to the <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/05\/18\/business\/dealbook\/corporate-bankruptcies-high-debt.html\">New York Times<\/em><em>,<\/em> more than 230 U.S. companies filed for Chapter 11 \u2014 the largest number since 2010.<\/p>\n<p>Since the Covid-19 pandemic began in March 2020, companies have been whipsawed by rapidly changing tailwinds and headwinds. Early in the pandemic, a combination of government stimulus, low interest rates, and the success of working from home created tremendous growth opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>As inflation persisted \u2014 rising as high as 9.1% in June 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank raised interest rates from near 0% to a range between 5% and 5.25%.<\/p>\n<p>For heavily indebted companies dependent on consumers squeezed by persistent inflation, the drop in discretionary spending has contributed to their inability to meet their financial obligations.<\/p>\n<p>Yet the economy has a big strength. In April 2023, the 3.4% unemployment rate and a 4.3% rise in consumer spending \u2014 which accounts for 70% of economic growth \u2014 kept GDP growing at a modest 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023.<\/p>\n<p>This mixture of economic strengths and weaknesses aims the most pressure at specific industries. Retailers \u2014 such as BBBY and David\u2019s Bridal \u2014 as well as restaurants are filing for bankruptcy because they are \u201ctypically among the most sensitive businesses to challenging economic conditions,\u201d the <em>Times<\/em> noted.<\/p>\n<p>However, my analysis of why BBBY went bankrupt suggests a gigantic strategy misfire was the primary reason for its failure, rather than a difficult economy. Last summer, BBBY burnt through $325 million in cash as revenue plunged 25%.<\/p>\n<p>The reason was that activists who took over BBBY\u2019s board saw private label goods as a way to boost the company\u2019s profitability. In November 2019, the board hired Mark Tritton, the former chief merchandising officer at Target<fbs-ticker data-name=\"TGT\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/target\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  TGT<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> who had overseen a makeover that included loading up Target\u2019s shelves with private label goods.<\/p>\n<p>Tritton \u2014 who neglected to consult store managers and customers ahead of time \u2014 bulldozed the private label strategy through BBBY. Before his arrival, store managers had the flexibility to stock up to 70% of their local shelves with goods that customers wanted \u2014 most notably, discounts on branded goods such as Cuisinart food processors and OXO cookware.<\/p>\n<p>After Tritton forced stores to rid their shelves of branded goods and replace them with private label ones, consumers entered the stores, searched for and failed to find the branded products they wanted to buy, and began buying those items from Amazon<fbs-ticker data-name=\"AMZN\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/amazon\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  AMZN<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>.<\/p>\n<p>More bankruptcies are on the way as banks cut back on lending. Joe Davis, Vanguard chief global economist, warned that tighter financial conditions will force companies to cut costs, part ways with workers, and ultimately file for Chapter 11. Bank of America predicted that about $1 trillion worth of corporate debt \u2014 8% of the total \u2014 could default, reported the <em>Times<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>More retail bankruptcies are likely. As BBBY\u2019s Chapter 11 filing suggests, investors ought to analyze individual companies to distinguish the likely winners from the losers.<\/p>\n<p>In my view, the winners will be companies with effective strategies that serve consumers eager to spend more while the losers will aim ineffective strategies at cash-strapped buyers.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">2 Retail Winners<\/h2>\n<p>Investors reward companies that exceed expectations. Two retail winners reported better than expected sales and profits and raised their guidance.<\/p>\n<p>Each of them share common traits: they target consumers who are eager to spend and they compete for market share through effective strategies featuring great products and tightly managed operations.<\/p>\n<p>Here are two retail winners with a discussion of their stock prices, results, and growth strategies.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Abercrombie &amp; Fitch<fbs-ticker data-name=\"ANF\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/abercrombie-fitch\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  ANF<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> Stock Rises 30%<\/h3>\n<p>Mall retailer A&amp;F enjoyed a 30% surge in its stock price on May 24 after reporting a surprise profit, raising its guidance and beating Wall Street\u2019s sales and profit estimates, noted <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/05\/24\/abercrombie-fitch-anf-q1-earnings-report-2023.html\">CNBC<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>A&amp;F benefited from strong demand from wealthier millennial shoppers buying return-to-office clothes from its namesake brand. As CEO Fran Horowitz told <em>Yahoo Finance Live<\/em>, &#8220;We really changed the brand from what people used to reference as a T-shirt and jeans brand to a lifestyle brand.\u201d She said growth is increasing because consumers are buying more product categories from A&amp;F.<\/p>\n<p>While Hollister, A&amp;F\u2019s more economically sensitive product line, did not do as well, it exceeded analyst expectations. Moreover, A&amp;F boosted its profit margin by better matching inventory to demand. This helped lower A&amp;F\u2019s product and freight costs and enhance its margins.<\/p>\n<p>Analyst Neil Saunders said A&amp;F management has improved the company\u2019s merchandise selection. He cited the company\u2019s \u201celevated casual offer,\u201d \u201crange of relaxed styles for men and women,\u201d and \u201cgreat strides in apparel growth areas such as activewear.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For fiscal 2023, A&amp;F raised its guidance for sales growth and operating margin. Specifically, it now expects \u201cnet sales to grow between 2% and 4%, compared with a previous range of 1% to 3% [with] operating margin to be in the range of 5% to 6%, compared with its previous outlook of 4% to 5%,\u201d <em>CNBC<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Dick\u2019s Sporting Goods Stock Increases 2%<\/h3>\n<p>Sporting goods retailer Dick\u2019s reported better than expected sales and profits on May 23 \u2014 sending its shares up slightly. CEO Lauren Hobart said \u201cits core customer base of athletes purchased more, purchased more frequently and spent more each trip,\u201d according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/retail-sector-is-split-between-winners-and-losers-as-clothing-stores-grapple-with-inflation-weary-consumers-7515e099\">MarketWatch<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Dick\u2019s competitive strategy contributes to its superior performance. Dick\u2019s strong vendor relations give it better merchandise and its strong internal operations enable it to earn double-digit profit margins while its weaker rivals are falling short of sales and profit targets as they struggle with higher inventories, D.A. Davidson analysts noted.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">2 Retail Losers<\/h2>\n<p>Two retail losers in the clothing industry blamed cash-strapped consumers for their failure to meet investor expectations.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts at UBS confirmed the problem. They found consumers are deferring clothing purchases more than any other category. Specifically, the apparel purchase deferral rate increased to 42% since the beginning of the cycle, compared with 23% for other discretionary categories, <em>MarketWatch<\/em> reported.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Children\u2019s Place Stock Fell 25%<\/h3>\n<p>Specialty apparel retailer Children\u2019s Place reported wider-than-expected losses and cut its guidance in a May 24 report. CEO Jane Elfers blamed forces outside the company\u2019s control, noting: \u201cOur first quarter results were negatively impacted by the ongoing macro-tension which resulted in outsized pressure on our core customer by limiting their purchasing power,\u201d according to a statement.<\/p>\n<p>My guess is that merchandise selection and insufficient control of operations contributed to the disappointing results. Core customers spent less in the first quarter with same store sales down 8.2%. Moreover, higher cost of good sold contributed to a 9.2 percentage point drop in its gross margin, noted <em>TipRanks<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Children\u2019s Place blames macroeconomic headwinds for a lower 2023 revenue forecast. After a 10.8% drop last year, the company expects revenue to fall another 12% in the current fiscal year.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"subhead3-embed color-body bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">American Eagle Outfitters<fbs-ticker data-name=\"AEO\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/american-eagle-outfitters\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  AEO<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker> Shares Shed 20%<\/h3>\n<p>Shares of clothing and accessories retailer American Eagle Outfitters fell 20% on May 25 after it reported revenue and earnings per share that met expectations and forecast a drop in second quarter revenue, according to <em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2023\/05\/25\/stocks-making-the-biggest-premarket-moves-nvidia-best-buy-snowflake-carnival-and-more.html\">CNBC<\/em><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>American Eagle lowered its operating income and full-year revenue guidance.Specifically, the company \u201canticipates full-year revenue to be flat to down low single-digits, lagging the flat to up single-digits it projected before\u201d while it forecast a 10% drop in operating income \u2014 to a midpoint of $260 million \u2014 compared to its March 2023 estimate, <em>CNBC <\/em>reported.<\/p>\n<p>American Eagle has opportunities to improve the appeal of its merchandise to consumers and to boost efficiency. In a news release, CEO Jay Schottenstein said the company should \u201cchase profitable growth\u201d and become more efficient by imposing \u201cinventory discipline\u201d and cutting costs.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">What Investors Should Do<\/h2>\n<p>I think investors should evaluate their risk and reward preferences before deciding whether to bet on either retailers that are doing well or against retailers that are struggling.<\/p>\n<p>My hunch is that the potential for gain is greatest for investors who are willing to take a risky bet that an at-risk retailer will file for bankruptcy.<\/p>\n<p>Investors willing to take this risk could borrow shares in the company, sell them in the open market, and hope that the company stock plunges on the way to bankruptcy. If that happens, they can repay the stock loan by buying back the shares in the open market at pennies per share and pocket the difference.<\/p>\n<p>Retail Dive considered six retailers to be among those with an elevated risk of bankruptcy on March 6. 2023.<\/p>\n<p>They are ranked in descending order of their likelihood of going bankrupt based on their Financial Health Rating which measures their risk of default by March 2024 \u2014 ranging from 0 = highest risk to 100 = lowest risk.<\/p>\n<p>For each company, I have included its short interest, stock price performance, cash burn and ending cash balance for the most recent period, according to the <em>Wall Street Journal<\/em>.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Wayfair<br \/>\n   <fbs-ticker data-name=\"W\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/wayfair\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n    W<br \/>\n   <\/fbs-ticker> (19). <\/strong>While 31.3% of its shares are sold short; as of May 26, its stock had risen 12% in 2023. The company burned through $234 million in free cash flow in the March 2023-ending quarter \u2014 when it held $970 million in cash.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Blue Apron (29)<\/strong>. 10.9% of its shares are sold short; as of May 26, its stock had fallen 25% in 2023. The company burned through $11.2 million in free cash flow in the March 2023-ending quarter \u2014 when it held $31.7 million in cash.<\/li>\n<li><strong>The RealReal (29). <\/strong>14.5% of its shares are sold short; as of May 26 its stock had risen 33% in 2023. The company burned through $40.2 million in free cash flow in the March 2023-ending quarter \u2014 when it held $247 million in cash.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Boxed (30). <\/strong>20.6% of its shares are sold short; as of May 26, its stock had lost 99% of its value in 2023. The company burned through $13.5 million in free cash flow in the September-2022-ending quarter (its most recent financial report) \u2014 when it held $35.3 million in cash.<\/li>\n<li><strong>ThredUp (38). <\/strong>12.2% of its shares are sold short; as of May 26, its stock had risen 92% in 2023 to $2.27. The company burned through $8.1 million in free cash flow in the March 2023-ending quarter \u2014 when it held $51.2 million in cash.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Farfetch (42). <\/strong>8.4% of its shares are sold short; as of May 26, its stock had risen 8% in 2023 to $2.27. The company burned through $169 million in free cash flow in the March 2023-ending quarter \u2014 when it held $486 million in cash.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>While the two winners I mentioned above could keep rising, investors who do not wish to bet on the decline of weak retailers may be better off investing in a sector propelled by a powerful tailwind \u2014 such as the adoption of generative AI \u2014 rather than in shares of successful retailers fighting strong economic headwinds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/petercohan\/2023\/05\/27\/after-bed-bath--beyond-will-another-retailer-fall-2-winners-and-losers\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In April, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY) filed for bankruptcy after a botched merchandising makeover. More retail bankruptcies could be ahead, noted the New York Times NYT . Given the low unemployment rate and continued growth in consumer spending, investors must distinguish the retail winners from the losers. After reporting first quarter results, two things [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14697,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-14696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>After Bed Bath &amp; Beyond, Will Another Retailer Fall? 2 Winners And Losers | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In April, Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY) filed for bankruptcy after a botched merchandising makeover. 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