{"id":14284,"date":"2023-05-26T15:15:43","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T19:15:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/news\/alarm-com-guides-to-lower-2023-revenue-growth-as-macro-clouds-loom-nasdaqalrm\/"},"modified":"2023-05-26T15:15:45","modified_gmt":"2023-05-26T19:15:45","slug":"alarm-com-guides-to-lower-2023-revenue-growth-as-macro-clouds-loom-nasdaqalrm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=14284","title":{"rendered":"Alarm.com Guides To Lower 2023 Revenue Growth As Macro Clouds Loom (NASDAQ:ALRM)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-test-id=\"content-container\">\n<p><figure class=\"getty-figure\" data-type=\"getty-image\"><picture>  <\/picture><figcaption> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<h2>A Quick Take On Alarm.com<\/h2>\n<p><strong>Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.<\/strong> (<span class=\"ticker-hover-wrapper\">NASDAQ:ALRM<\/span>) reported its Q1 2023 financial results on May 10, 2023, beating both revenue and EPS consensus estimates.<\/p>\n<p>The company provides cloud-based security systems and intelligent automation<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\"> functions to residential and commercial customers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">I previously wrote about Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. with a Hold rating here.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Given the macroeconomic risks the company faces, my near-term outlook on Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. stock continues to be Neutral [Hold] until we see a higher revenue growth rate.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Alarm.com Overview And Market<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">Tysons, Virginia-based Alarm.com was founded in 2000 to offer a range of security and other intelligent building services in the U.S. and internationally.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The firm is headed by Chief Executive Officer Stephen Trundle, who was previously Chief Technical Officer at MicroStrategy and MDI at Bath Iron Works.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible\">The company\u2019s primary<span class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"> offerings include:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Security &amp; Safety<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Video Monitoring<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Home Management<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Wellness<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Access Control<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Energy Management &amp; Temperature Monitoring<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p>Multi-location Management.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The firm acquires customers via direct sales for large accounts, through partners and resellers and via its website.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">According to a 2021 market research report by Verified Market Research, the global market for alarm monitoring was an estimated $48.9 billion in 2019 and is forecast to reach $68.6 billion by 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">This represents a forecast CAGR of 5.0% from 2020 to 2027.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The main drivers for this expected growth are an increase in adoption of security systems in residential and commercial facilities due to insurance rate reductions and more capable system offerings at lower prices.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Also, the market for monitoring is increasingly fragmented, with new service providers such as Google and Amazon entering the market for various types of consumer-oriented monitoring solutions.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Alarm.com Recent Financial Trends<\/h2>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Total revenue by quarter has plateaued recently:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1685108721641936.png\" alt=\"Total Revenue\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Total Revenue <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Gross profit margin by quarter has trended higher in recent quarters:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16851087215916474.png\" alt=\"Gross Profit Margin\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Gross Profit Margin <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Selling, G&amp;A expenses as a percentage of total revenue by quarter rose materially in Q1 2023:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1685108721642862.png\" alt=\"Selling, G&amp;A % Of Revenue\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Selling, G&amp;A % Of Revenue <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Operating income by quarter has fluctuated as follows:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16851087220605488.png\" alt=\"Operating Income\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Operating Income <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Operating leverage by quarter dropped sharply in Q1 2023:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-1685108721581916.png\" alt=\"Operating Leverage\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Operating Leverage <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<ul class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<li>\n<p>Earnings per share (Diluted) have produced the following results:<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16851087217077963.png\" alt=\"Earnings Per Share\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Earnings Per Share <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">(All data in the above charts is GAAP.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In the past 12 months, ALRM\u2019s stock price has fallen 21.4% vs. the ADT, Inc. (ADT) drop of 18.78%, as the chart indicates below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16851087231288624.png\" alt=\"52-Week Stock Price Comparison\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">52-Week Stock Price Comparison <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">For the balance sheet, the firm ended the quarter with $606.4 million in cash and equivalents and $492 million in total debt, none of which was categorized as the current portion due within 12 months.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Over the trailing twelve months, free cash flow was $38.4 million, of which capital expenditures accounted for $28.9 million. The company paid $53.2 million in stock-based compensation (&#8220;SBC&#8221;) in the last four quarters, the highest trailing twelve-month result in the past eleven quarters.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Valuation And Other Metrics For Alarm.com<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Measure [TTM]<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Amount<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ Sales<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>2.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ EBITDA<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>28.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Price \/ Sales<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>3.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Revenue Growth Rate<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>8.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Income Margin<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>7.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>EBITDA %<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>10.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Debt To Annual EBITDA<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-1.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Market Capitalization<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$2,500,000,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$2,460,000,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Operating Cash Flow<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$67,340,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Earnings Per Share (Fully Diluted)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$1.18<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">(Source &#8211; Seeking Alpha.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">As a reference, a relevant partial public comparable would be ADT; shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:<\/p>\n<p> <span class=\"table-responsive paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\"><span class=\"table-scroll-wrapper\"><span data-intersection-boundary=\"start\"><\/span><\/p>\n<table>\n<colgroup>\n<col>\n<col>\n<col>\n<col> <\/colgroup>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Metric [TTM]<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>ADT<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Alarm.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p><strong>Variance<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ Sales<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>2.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>2.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>24.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Enterprise Value \/ EBITDA<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>6.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>28.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>367.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Revenue Growth Rate<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>16.5%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>8.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-49.7%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Net Income Margin<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>0.48<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>7.3%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-84.8%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>Operating Cash Flow<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$1,890,000,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>$67,340,000<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<td>\n<p>-96.4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p> <span data-intersection-boundary=\"end\"><\/span><\/span><button class=\"table-enlarge-button\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" class=\"table-enlarge-icon\"><path fill-rule=\"evenodd\" clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\"><\/path><\/svg>Click to enlarge<\/button><\/span> <\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">(Source &#8211; Seeking Alpha.)<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Commentary On Alarm.com<\/h2>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In its last earnings call (Source &#8211; Seeking Alpha), covering Q1 2023\u2019s results, management highlighted the resilient nature of the security industry during times of economic downturn.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Also, the firm has seen increased partner usage of its commercial service offerings.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company has worked to expand the range of third-party camera support, making it easier for partners to use its platform.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. continues to expand its relationships in the residential home builder sector.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Notably, the company&#8217;s OpenEye system now offers Sales Connect, a system that is able to integrate with point-of-sale transactions to trigger \u2018real-time alerts for point-of-sales exceptions such as voids, refunds and overrides, and retrieves the corresponding video of the transaction.\u2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">However, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. management did not disclose any company or customer retention metrics.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Total revenue for Q1 2023 rose 2.1% year-over-year and gross profit margin increased an impressive 7.5 percentage points.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Selling, G&amp;A expenses as a percentage of revenue increased 3.1 percentage points, indicating reduced efficiency in this regard, while operating profit grew 4% year-over-year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Looking ahead, Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. management guided full-year 2023 revenue to $868.7 million at the midpoint of the range, or approximately only 3.12% growth rate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to be approximately $122.5 million at the midpoint.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The company&#8217;s financial position is reasonably good, with ample liquidity, a moderate amount of long-term debt for its size and EBITDA and acceptable positive free cash flow.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">From Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. management\u2019s most recent earnings call, I prepared a chart showing the frequency of key terms mentioned (or not) in the call, as shown below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16851087221880348.png\" alt=\"Earnings Transcript Key Terms Frequency\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">Earnings Transcript Key Terms Frequency <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">I\u2019m most interested in the frequency of potentially negative terms, so management cited &#8220;Challeng[es][ing]&#8221; once and &#8220;Macro&#8221; ten times.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">The negative terms refer to the ongoing questions about the deteriorating macro environment the firm and its customers are facing.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">In the past twelve months, the firm&#8217;s EV\/EBITDA valuation multiple has dropped 13.3%, as the chart from Seeking Alpha shows below:<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">\n<figure class=\"regular-img-figure\" contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <span><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/12102811-16851087222680528.png\" alt=\"EV\/EBITDA Multiple History\" contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/span> <\/picture><figcaption>\n<p class=\"item-caption\">EV\/EBITDA Multiple History <span>(Seeking Alpha)<\/span><\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">While Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. management touts the security industry\u2019s resilience, the company&#8217;s focus on growing its commercial business presents challenges as businesses reduce spending initiatives due to falling demand or lowered credit availability from smaller and regional banks.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Also, leadership has guided to a significantly reduced topline revenue growth rate in 2023 compared to 2022\u2019s year-over-year growth rate.<\/p>\n<p class=\"paywall-full-content invisible no-summary-bullets\">Given the macroeconomic risks the company faces, my near-term outlook on Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. continues to be Neutral [Hold] until we see a higher revenue growth rate.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4607713-alarmcom-guides-to-lower-2023-revenue-growth-as-macro-clouds-loom?source=feed_all_articles\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A Quick Take On Alarm.com Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM) reported its Q1 2023 financial results on May 10, 2023, beating both revenue and EPS consensus estimates. The company provides cloud-based security systems and intelligent automation functions to residential and commercial customers. I previously wrote about Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. with a Hold rating here. Given the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[236],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-14284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-featured","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Alarm.com Guides To Lower 2023 Revenue Growth As Macro Clouds Loom (NASDAQ:ALRM) | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"A Quick Take On Alarm.com Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. 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