{"id":14095,"date":"2023-05-26T07:31:07","date_gmt":"2023-05-26T11:31:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/should-you-pick-abbvie-stock-over-lly\/"},"modified":"2023-05-26T07:31:08","modified_gmt":"2023-05-26T11:31:08","slug":"should-you-pick-abbvie-stock-over-lly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=14095","title":{"rendered":"Should You Pick AbbVie Stock Over LLY?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>We believe that <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/ABBV\/\">AbbVie stock <\/strong>(NYSE: ABBV) is a better pick than its industry peer, <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LLY\/\">Eli Lilly stock<\/strong><strong> <\/strong>(NYSE: LLY). LLY stock trades at a higher valuation of <strong>14.6x<\/strong> trailing revenues, compared to just <strong>4.2x<\/strong> for AbbVie<fbs-ticker data-name=\"ABBV\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/abbvie\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n  ABBV<br \/>\n <\/fbs-ticker>, and this valuation gap will likely narrow over time in favor of AbbVie, in our view. Looking at stock returns, Eli Lilly has outperformed AbbVie and the broader indices. While LLY is up 16% this year, ABBV is down 13%, and the S&amp;P500 index is up 7%. There is more to the comparison, and in the sections below, we discuss why we believe ABBV stock will offer higher returns than LLY stock in the next three years. We compare a slew of factors, such as historical revenue growth, returns, and valuation, in an interactive dashboard analysis of <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LLY\/no-login-required\/2DVDWD0k\/Eli-Lilly-and-Company-vs-AbbVie-With-Return-Forecast-Of-32-AbbVie-Is-A-Better-Bet?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230526\">Eli Lilly vs. AbbVie<\/strong>: <strong>Which Stock Is A Better Bet?<\/strong> Parts of the analysis are summarized below.<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. AbbVie\u2019s Revenue Growth Is Better<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AbbVie\u2019s revenue growth has been much better, with a <strong>21.2%<\/strong> average annual growth rate in the last three years, compared to <strong>8.7%<\/strong> for Eli Lilly.<\/li>\n<li>AbbVie\u2019s revenue growth has been buoyed by its Allergan<fbs-ticker data-name=\"AGN\" data-href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/companies\/allergan\" data-type=\"stock\"><br \/>\n   AGN<br \/>\n  <\/fbs-ticker> acquisition in 2020.<\/li>\n<li>The company is best known for its blockbuster drug \u2013 Humira \u2013 used to treat rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn\u2019s disease, among others. Humira garnered $21.2 billion in 2022 sales, reflecting a 3% y-o-y growth. Now, Humira\u2019s biosimilar has already hit the European and the U.S. markets, weighing on the company\u2019s sales.<\/li>\n<li>Eli Lilly\u2019s revenue growth has been driven by continued market share gains for drugs such as Trulicity, Verzenio, Jardiance, and its Covid-19 antibodies. The company also secured U.S. FDA approval for its diabetes drug \u2013 Tirzepatide \u2013 which is expected to garner over $5 billion in peak sales.<\/li>\n<li>Even if we look at the last twelve-month period, AbbVie fares better with sales growth of <strong>4.4%<\/strong> vs. <strong>-5.6%<\/strong> for Eli Lilly. However, this decline for Eli Lilly is primarily attributed to lower sales for its Covid-19 antibodies.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/ABBV\/no-login-required\/2xAUeULm\/AbbVie-ABBV-Revenue-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230526\">AbbVie Revenue Comparison<\/strong> and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LLY\/no-login-required\/1ZTkiRY7\/Eli-Lilly-and-Company-LLY-Revenue-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230526\">Eli Lilly Revenue Comparison<\/strong> dashboards provide more insight into the companies\u2019 sales.<\/li>\n<li>Looking forward, more Humira biosimilars are expected to enter the U.S. this year, likely resulting in a significant drop in the drug\u2019s sales over the coming years.<\/li>\n<li>That said, AbbVie is prepared to combat this biosimilar impact with its Allergan acquisition in 2020, giving it access to Botox, a multi-billion dollar product. Furthermore, its relatively new drugs \u2013 Skyrizi and Rinvoq \u2013 used to treat plaque psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis, are gaining market share. For perspective, these three products garnered $13.0 billion in 2022, reflecting about 40% y-o-y growth.<\/li>\n<li>Eli Lilly, conversely, has no near-term risks associated with biosimilars. It has a robust product cycle, including Alzheimer\u2019s treatment \u2013 Donanemab \u2013 one of the most anticipated drugs with peak sales pegged as high as $10 billion.<\/li>\n<li>Overall, 2023 will be a painful year for AbbVie, with a decline in sales due to Humira biosimilars, but it will likely return to growth from 2024 with its relatively new drugs gaining market share.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>2. AbbVie Is More Profitable <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AbbVie\u2019s operating margin declined from <strong>39%<\/strong> in 2019 to <strong>31.2%<\/strong> in 2022, while Eli Lilly\u2019s operating margin rose from <strong>21.8%<\/strong> to <strong>25.3%<\/strong> over this period.<\/li>\n<li>Looking at the last twelve-month period, AbbVie\u2019s operating margin of <strong>31.6%<\/strong> fares better than <strong>22.7%<\/strong> for Eli Lilly.<\/li>\n<li>AbbVie\u2019s 2019 operating margin of 39% was higher due to an $890 million other income recorded in the financials.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/ABBV\/no-login-required\/VwAP6QRJ\/AbbVie-ABBV-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230526\">AbbVie Operating Income Comparison<\/strong><strong> <\/strong>and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LLY\/no-login-required\/S0jdRzo2\/Eli-Lilly-and-Company-LLY-Operating-Income-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230526\">Eli Lilly Operating Income Comparison<\/strong> dashboards have more details.<\/li>\n<li>AbbVie\u2019s free cash flow margin of <strong>43.4%<\/strong> is higher than <strong>22.7%<\/strong> for Eli Lilly.<\/li>\n<li>Looking at financial risk, Eli Lilly fares better with its <strong>4.7%<\/strong> debt as a percentage of equity lower than <strong>32.8%<\/strong> for AbbVie, and its <strong>6.9%<\/strong> cash as a percentage of assets higher than <strong>4.9% <\/strong>for the latter, implying that Eli Lilly has a better debt position and more cash cushion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>3. The Net of It All<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>We see that AbbVie has demonstrated better revenue growth, is more profitable, and is trading at a comparatively lower valuation multiple. On the other hand, Eli Lilly has a better debt position and cash cushion.<\/li>\n<li>Now, looking at prospects, using P\/S as a base, due to high fluctuations in P\/E and P\/EBIT, we believe AbbVie is the better choice of the two, primarily because of its lower valuation. It appears that the investors have already priced in Humira\u2019s biosimilar risks.<\/li>\n<li>If we compare the current valuation multiples to the historical averages, AbbVie fares better, with its stock currently trading at <strong>4.3x<\/strong> trailing revenues vs. the last five-year average of <strong>5.3x. <\/strong>In contrast, Eli Lilly stock trades at <strong>14.2x<\/strong> trailing revenues vs. the last five-year average of <strong>8.3x<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<li>Just like AbbVie\u2019s concerns appear to be priced in, Eli Lilly\u2019s strong pipeline potential also seems to be priced in by the investors.<\/li>\n<li>Our <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/ABBV\/no-login-required\/dbIQkEew\/AbbVie-ABBV-Valuation-Ratios-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230526\">AbbVie Valuation Ratios Comparison<\/strong> and <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/LLY\/no-login-required\/HeLuxt9E\/Eli-Lilly-and-Company-LLY-Valuation-Ratios-Comparison?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230526\">Eli Lilly Valuation Ratios Comparison<\/strong> have more details.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>While ABBV may outperform LLY in the next three years, it is helpful to see how <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/ABBV\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">AbbVie\u2019s Peers<\/strong> fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/topic\/peer-comparisons\">Peer Comparisons<\/strong><strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you\u2019ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for<strong> <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/AMED\/no-login-required\/HSffy3Lj\/Amedisys-vs-Amerco-AMED-stock-s-significantly-higher-valuation-vs-UHAL-appears-counterintuitive?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230526\">Amedisys vs. Amerco<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Despite higher inflation and the Fed raising interest rates, LLY has seen a 16% rise this year. But can it drop from here? See how low Eli Lilly stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.<\/p>\n<p>What if you\u2019re looking for a high-performance portfolio with a low downside instead? Here\u2019s a <strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/BPo8U0Xc\/Reinforced-Value-Portfolio-with-439-Return-Since-2016-vs-87-for-S-P-500?fromforbesandarticle=trefis230526\">reinforced value portfolio<\/strong> that has beaten the market consistently while limiting losses during periods of sharp market declines.<\/p>\n<p>Invest with <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/companies\/PORTFOLIOS\/no-login-required\/M7MacZNG?fromforbes\">Market Beating Portfolios<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>See all <strong>Trefis <\/strong><strong data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/dashboards.trefis.com\/data\/price-estimates?fromforbes\">Price Estimates<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/greatspeculations\/2023\/05\/26\/should-you-pick-abbvie-stock-over-lly\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We believe that AbbVie stock (NYSE: ABBV) is a better pick than its industry peer, Eli Lilly stock (NYSE: LLY). LLY stock trades at a higher valuation of 14.6x trailing revenues, compared to just 4.2x for AbbVie ABBV , and this valuation gap will likely narrow over time in favor of AbbVie, in our view. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14096,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-14095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Should You Pick AbbVie Stock Over LLY? | iFintechWorld<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We believe that AbbVie stock (NYSE: ABBV) is a better pick than its industry peer, Eli Lilly stock (NYSE: LLY). 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