{"id":12566,"date":"2023-05-23T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-05-23T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/investing\/are-we-about-to-go-into-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-says-or-doesnt-say\/"},"modified":"2023-05-23T09:00:01","modified_gmt":"2023-05-23T13:00:01","slug":"are-we-about-to-go-into-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-says-or-doesnt-say","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=12566","title":{"rendered":"Are We About To Go Into A Recession? Here\u2019s What The Data Says (Or Doesn\u2019t Say)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Inflation, housing and jobs data all pointing the right direction for taming high inflation while avoiding a recession<\/li>\n<li>But the debt-ceiling crisis is putting pressure on the markets as the deadline draws closer<\/li>\n<li>If the US defaults on its debt, then the financial consequences would be severe and would almost certainly trigger a deep recession<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Is the US heading for a recession? It feels like we\u2019ve been asking this question for far too long, yet the danger &#8211; and rumors &#8211; still persist as long as the Fed\u2019s battle against inflation rages. While the data looks fairly solid, some clouds are still on the horizon with jobs and inflation that could tip the probability of a recession in the US.<\/p>\n<p>But the debt-ceiling drama is another factor to consider, even though the government will likely find a solution before the dreaded US debt default actually happens. The stock market has remained surprisingly calm amid the saga. Let\u2019s get into the details.<\/p>\n<p><em>Inflation, a debt-ceiling crisis, interest rates &#8211; it\u2019s enough to worry even the savviest investor. But you can make the most of a grim economic outlook with Q.ai\u2019s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/recession-resistance-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Recession Resistance Kit<\/em><em>, which is designed by humans and runs on AI machine learning to help you ringfence yields.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p><em>The AI finds the recession-proof stocks that are set to perform well, such as utilities and consumer staples, by scanning vast amounts of information each week. It then dynamically adjusts the holdings as needed to help your portfolio weather the financial storm.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/rPJtRhhOUyb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How is the data looking?<\/h2>\n<p>At the last meeting in May, the Fed raised interest rates to highs not seen since 2007. The target interest rate in the US is now 5% to 5.25%. Since then, investors and analysts have largely priced in an anticipated interest rate pause in June &#8211; the CME FedWatch tool puts an interest rate paise as 76.6% likely &#8211; but the deal is far from done.<\/p>\n<p>Fed chair Jerome Powell said last week that stresses in the banking sector could mean \u201cour policy rate may not need to rise as much as it would have otherwise to achieve our goals\u201d, giving further weight to the anticipated pause. Powell was still keen to point out that inflation was too high and the Fed would continue to be led by the data.<\/p>\n<p>The latest data has undoubtedly given the Fed some much-needed encouragement. Last month\u2019s consumer price index (CPI) data revealed US inflation had fallen below 5% for the first time in two years, while the US job openings rate has fallen 1.5 percentage points since its peak.<\/p>\n<p>But we\u2019re not out of the woods yet. May figures for the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers\u2019 Indexes are released later today, with the report expected to be below April\u2019s result, while May\u2019s CPI could make no progress at all thanks to increasingly high housing and rent costs.<\/p>\n<p>Powell and other Fed leaders also noted last week the effect of record-low unemployment, currently at 3.4%, on keeping inflation high. \u201cI do think that labor market slack is likely to be an increasingly important factor in inflation going forward,&#8221; Powell said.<\/p>\n<p>In a nutshell: the US has made some progress, but there\u2019s still a long way to go and nothing is off the table.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The debt-ceiling crisis\u2019 role in a potential recession<\/h2>\n<p>There\u2019s still no agreement on how the US government plans to pay its bills in a scenario akin to 2011\u2019s default crisis. As we inch closer to the June 1 deadline that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen set, the government now faces the prospect of running out of time to pay even if an agreement is reached.<\/p>\n<p>If the US defaults on its debts, the stock market would almost certainly crash; the housing market could implode as interest rates spike and Social Security benefits could be at risk. And yes, the US would surely enter a massive recession, followed by the rest of the world.<\/p>\n<p>But the most significant loss would be the US\u2019 reputation on the global stage. The US dollar is the world\u2019s reserve currency because the US economy is the biggest and therefore considered the most stable. Why would petty political squabbling jeopardize that?<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s such an \u2018own goal\u2019 that it just doesn\u2019t bear thinking about. It\u2019s probably why Wall Street isn\u2019t too phased by the situation either, despite ongoing market volatility.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">How are the markets doing?<\/h2>\n<p>Before the debt-ceiling saga intensified, the markets had been buoyed by the latest data sets that showed inflation dropping and the jobs market cooling down. But since then, the drama has dominated the markets and will continue to do so until an agreement is reached.<\/p>\n<p>In 2011 the S&amp;P 500 slumped 17% around the time of the debt default deadline, taking weeks afterwards to recover from the situation. Investors could see the same happen in as soon as the next few days if we don\u2019t see President Biden hammer out a deal with the Republicans.<\/p>\n<p>But as it stands, the stock market is holding up relatively well. The S&amp;P 500 has gained 1.34% in the last month, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dipped 1.74% and the Nasdaq is up 5.68%, buoyed by a potential rate hold.<\/p>\n<p>US stock futures were relatively flat on Tuesday morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&amp;P 500 futures both 0.2% lower and the Nasdaq 100 futures 0.1% down, reflecting a dour mood after not seeing much progress from President Biden\u2019s meeting with Speaker McCarthy.<\/p>\n<p>As predicted, US Treasury shorter-term yields haven\u2019t been too hot with all of the debt-ceiling drama. The two-year yield was up three basis points to 4.3544% on Tuesday, while the 10-year yield remained relatively unchanged, falling less than one basis point to 3.713%. The one-month yield is trading at a record high of 5.718%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead-embed color-accent bg-base font-accent font-size text-align\">The bottom line<\/h2>\n<p>Is a recession on the way? If the unthinkable happens and the world\u2019s most prosperous economy kamikazes itself, then yes. But that\u2019s (hopefully) extremely unlikely, so if we focus on the longer-term factors driving inflation, like jobs and CPI, we have a more accurate picture.<\/p>\n<p>The US is doing better than Europe and the UK currently in fighting inflation, but the Fed\u2019s warnings about record unemployment shouldn\u2019t be ignored. The longer the battle goes on, the more difficult it will be to avoid at least a shallow recession in the US. While we could see an interest rate pause for now, the stock market doesn\u2019t seem too worried either way.<\/p>\n<p><em>Inflation isn\u2019t dropping as quickly as the Fed would like, so it\u2019s time to harness it for your own portfolio\u2019s benefit. Q.ai\u2019s <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/learn.tryq.ai\/blog\/inflation-kit?utm_campaign=Forbes&amp;utm_medium=article&amp;utm_source=Forbes\">Inflation Protection Kit<\/em><em> is like a defensive bunker against sticky inflation and a strong dollar to help you make returns in a tricky economic situation.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The secret ingredient is a supercharged AI algorithm that sifts through reams of data so you don\u2019t have to, finding the ETFs beating or holding against inflation. The AI then reallocates funds in the Kit\u2019s holdings each week to help you maximize every last cent and stay one step ahead.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/refer.tryq.ai\/rPJtRhhOUyb\">Download Q.ai today<\/em><em> for access to AI-powered investment strategies.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/qai\/2023\/05\/23\/are-we-about-to-go-into-a-recession-heres-what-the-data-says-or-doesnt-say\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key takeaways Inflation, housing and jobs data all pointing the right direction for taming high inflation while avoiding a recession But the debt-ceiling crisis is putting pressure on the markets as the deadline draws closer If the US defaults on its debt, then the financial consequences would be severe and would almost certainly trigger a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[239],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-12566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investing","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are We About To Go Into A Recession? 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