{"id":1221,"date":"2023-04-28T01:35:04","date_gmt":"2023-04-28T05:35:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/markets\/argentina-is-in-full-crisis-mode-can-economy-minister-sergio-massa-and-president-alberto-fernandez-regain-control\/"},"modified":"2023-04-28T01:35:05","modified_gmt":"2023-04-28T05:35:05","slug":"argentina-is-in-full-crisis-mode-can-economy-minister-sergio-massa-and-president-alberto-fernandez-regain-control","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ifintechworld.com\/?p=1221","title":{"rendered":"Argentina Is In Full Crisis-Mode. Can Economy Minister Sergio Massa And President Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez Regain Control?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>The adrenaline and anxiety generated by walking too close to the edge has taken over Argentina\u2019s economic actors once again. This has put the pressure on Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who appeared to have tamed the beast in the second half of 2022 but now finds himself under threat on multiple fronts. As is usual in Argentina the issue appears to be that there aren\u2019t enough dollars to satisfy demand as people flee from the ever-weakening peso. And in great part that\u2019s true, as the Central Bank led by Miguel \u00c1ngel Pesce (in close coordination with Massa) was forced to sell $3 billion just in the first quarter in order to keep the multiple peso-dollar exchange rates under relative control, which is a staggering amount. This is especially so in the context of depleted coffers, particularly after an incredibly tough drought has dried some $20 billion in agricultural exports from Argentina\u2019s economy compared to last year, which translates to about $7.4 billion in lost government revenue according to the Rosario Board of Trade. Once again, Argentina\u2019s deep fragilities have surfaced as much-needed reform was replaced with kicking the can down the road, meaning that what could have been a relatively stable mediocrity all the way to the elections could be replaced with frequent turbulence. If that were to happen and the opposition Juntos por el Cambio coalition take the reins, then it will mean even greater pain as they would quickly enact a shock plan aimed at stabilizing macroeconomic variables that, according to one economist who is very close to one of the leading candidates, only has a 50 percent chance of success.<\/p>\n<p>The economy is on edge as fears of a potential default have grown in tandem with a depletion of the Central Bank\u2019s reserves. As usual, sentiment changed very quickly and what seemed like a promising tenure at the Economy portfolio for Massa \u2013 who pinned his electoral hopes on being able to bring inflation down to a monthly rate of around three percent \u2013 is quickly becoming a runaway fire. Massa began to lose control of a series of variables that precipitated an acceleration of a flight to safety away from the peso and into the parallel dollar exchange rates. One of the major catalysts was the devastating effect of the drought in one of Argentina\u2019s only internationally competitive economic sectors, the agro-exporting complex. \u201cThe worst drought in, at least, the past 60 years has come to an end,\u201d read the report by the Rosario Board of Trade which noted that recent intense rainfall had stabilized the situation in several key provinces including C\u00f3rdoba, Santa Fe, and Entre R\u00edos. Exports have therefore fallen 48 percent, erasing $20 billion as mentioned previously.<\/p>\n<p>The fragility of Argentina\u2019s economy has once again been laid bare by an exogenous shock. Just like when the Mauricio Macri administration lost control of the economy in 2018 as Turkey suffered a currency crisis and contagion quickly spread through emerging markets, Massa\u2019s piecemeal plan to \u201chold on\u201d through Peronist gradualism until the elections is beginning to unravel. While he has proven to have the political weight that neither Mart\u00edn Guzm\u00e1n nor Silvina Batakais ever had, his autonomy \u2014 demarcated, of course, by Vice-President Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner and her associates \u2014 ended far from a position in which a \u201cstability plan\u201d could be implemented. His chief economist and deputy, Gabriel Rubinstein, had spoken about a series of agreements and commitments to \u201cde-dollarize\u201d the major economic variables, along with the engineering of a solid fiscal position and some level of devaluation to put a definite lid on inflation. He quickly backtracked and disowned that idea, noting that a shock-devaluation would create a cascading crisis if the conditions weren\u2019t right. Since then, the plan has been to continue to devalue the official peso-dollar exchange rate while finding dollars to keep the parallel rates under relative control. Whatever was left would be rationed for industrial imports, which of course stifles production.<\/p>\n<p>This is the plan that is becoming increasingly unsustainable. The government has been able to get IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva to loosen some of the key components of the program, including kicking back debt servicing payments until it receives IMF funds to reverse the depletion of reserves. It&#8217;s in the IMF&#8217;s interest to keep Argentina from imploding, but surely there must be some limits and Massa is quickly pushing the boundaries. Inflation remains stubbornly high, having fallen temporarily but quickly breaking into triple digits. At the same time, the government is running out of hard currency, forcing Massa to rely on unorthodox and costly variants, such as the controversial forced bond swap with government bodies including the ANSES social security agency and the preferential exchange rate for agricultural exporters or &#8220;dolar soja.&#8221; Peso-denominated debt has snowballed as a large fiscal deficit and a sceptical financial sector has required ever-higher rates to bankroll the state. Aforementioned preferential access to beneficial exchange rates for the agro-sector initially brought much needed export liquidation, but by bringing those dollars to the present have depleted potential liquidations in the future. That future is now \u2013after gaining control of a rabid economy in the aftermath of Guzm\u00e1n, Massa must now overpower a financial crisis of his own making if he is to make it to the elections.<\/p>\n<p><fbs-ad position=\"inread\" progressive=\"\" ad-id=\"article-0-inread\" aria-hidden=\"true\" role=\"presentation\"><\/fbs-ad><\/p>\n<p>The few months that separate us from the deadlines to present candidates and the first round of elections (PASO primaries) amount to an eternity in political terms. Things can change very quickly, but as they stand, the going hypothesis is that Juntos por el Cambio will take the presidential elections with either Horacio Rodr\u00edguez Larreta or Patricia Bullrich as their candidate. Either\u2019s economic plan would start with shock treatment, as mentioned above, likely pushing inflation even higher, potentially to the 150-percent per annum rate, in the first quarter. That devaluation would be coupled with a series of reforms aimed at cutting the deficit and limiting peso printing that, in theory, should restore confidence and lead to a sharp drop in inflation in the second half of the year. Currency controls, known colloquially as the \u201c<em>cepo<\/em>\u201d would be eased at some point in 2024, probably toward the end of the year. Growth could return the following year if all goes according to plan. One of the leading economists within Juntos por el Cambio\u2019s ranks estimates there\u2019s only a 50\/50 chance of success, but they believe it\u2019s the only way out. They expect social unrest and constant protests, especially in the first quarter, and therefore require broad-based support for the reform program, including from members of the Peronist coalition.<\/p>\n<p>Another alternative could be a surprise victory for libertarian economist Javier Milei, who some believe could make the run-off. This scenario is much more difficult to project but Milei, an anti-establishment candidate obsessed with closing the Central Bank and reducing the state to its minimum expression, will have limited congressional support. Social instability and political deadlock would lead to a dangerous situation with an economy in flames. Outside of Milei, the ruling Frente de Todos coalition \u2013 which still hasn\u2019t figured out its candidacies and is internally tearing itself apart \u2013 could still prove competitive in a scenario where no one candidate appears popular enough to win in the first round. President Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez bowed this one out, but reelection was already an impossibility. Massa is looking to take the lead, but he still hasn&#8217;t been able to get the public blessing of Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner.<\/p>\n<p>An acceleration of the current state of the crisis could prove fateful, so it is Massa\u2019s main priority to regain control. President Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez\u2019s meeting with Joe Biden put US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen face-to-face with Argentina\u2019s economy minister and it could be read as an implicit show of support for Argentina in its attempt to avert default. The game is not yet over, but the cards have already been dealt. Let\u2019s hope we got a good hand \u2013 and that they play it right.<\/p>\n<p><em>This <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/news\/opinion-and-analysis\/can-they-regain-control.phtml\">piece <\/em><em>was originally published in the <\/em><em data-ga-track=\"ExternalLink:https:\/\/www.batimes.com.ar\/\">Buenos Aires Times<\/em><em>, Argentina&#8217;s only English-language newspaper.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Read the full article <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/afontevecchia\/2023\/04\/27\/argentina-is-in-full-crisis-mode-can-economy-minister-sergio-massa-and-president-alberto-fernndez-regain-control\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The adrenaline and anxiety generated by walking too close to the edge has taken over Argentina\u2019s economic actors once again. This has put the pressure on Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who appeared to have tamed the beast in the second half of 2022 but now finds himself under threat on multiple fronts. As is usual [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1222,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[241],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-1221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-markets","tag-featured"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v20.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Argentina Is In Full Crisis-Mode. 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